Avid geography aficionados or those that simply appreciate the joys of examining their world atlas will have come across something unique when gazing at Morocco. Nearly half of the Moroccan landmass has a jagged line crossing through it and with what is labelled “Western Sahara”. This jagged line is encountered among disputed territories in far more well known locales including the Palestinian Territories and Kosovo. But for decades the Western Sahara issue was one that seemed wholly frozen, a relic of little import among the cacophony of global crisis that needed resolving. A central thesis shared among the editorial staff of The Thiébault Blog however (which is always unanimous, an advantage of being a 1 person “staff”) is that frozen conflicts that are allowed to fester invariably bring suffering not only to the residents of international no mans lands, but are also at constant risk of breaking out into greater war. Recent developments in Western Sahara are quickly bringing Morocco and the Polisario Front, as well as their international backers, to a dangerous loggerheads. More than just lamenting this situation however the urgency and clear path for a way forward will also be presented to all of the influential readers of The Thiébault Blog to help resolve the situation.
As is customary for this blog, a brief outline of the situation in Western Sahara will be presented. Western Sahara remained a Spanish colony until 1975 when Spain left. Morocco summarily annexed and claimed the capacious territory as its own, stating its claims predate Spain’s colonization by centuries, while encouraging Moroccans to settle in the territory. The Sahrawi people who make up the majority of those who inhabit Western Sahara formed an armed group called the Polisario Front to rebel against Morocco and fight for their own state, and as a result fighting raged until a UN brokered ceasefire in 1991. The Polisario Front is supported by neighbouring Algeria who house the Polisario Front’s self ascribed “Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic” (SADR) which is what they call their Western Sahara state. Repeated efforts to organize a referendum on the status of Western Sahara as either an independent state, an autonomous region of Morocco or even fully integrated into Morocco have gone nowhere with myriad points of contention, but the question of who should be eligible to vote and what the referendum options should be have proven to be the most insurmountable. Yet the conflict has remained largely frozen since 1991 with an uneasy peace holding under the auspicious of UN peace keepers (not to mention a wall erected by Morocco at the ceasefire line, eerily reminiscent of the Palestinian situation and Trump’s border wall). Things have unfortunately deteriorated recently, exacerbated by foreign meddling.
Similar to the situation in Taiwan, recognition of Western Sahara as a country has a tendency to flip for many nations based on the state of their relations with Morocco. Notably however SADR is a full member of the African Union, while the UN categorizes it as a “Non-self Governing Territory” which in typical UN fashion is a jumble of words entirely devoid of meaning. Western Saharan recognition is of particular importance since in December 2020 President Trump took the belligerent step of completely recognizing Morocco’s claim to Western Sahara in order for Washington to broker a deal in which Rabat restored diplomatic relations with Israel. This incensed both the Polisario Front and their Algerian backers, and President Biden seems loath to reverse this incendiary decision. In response the EU, led by Spain, ensured that they would not follow the US in recognizing Morocco’s claims to Western Sahara. Though in typical fractious EU fashion, France, an ardent supporter of Morocco was not pleased by the decision. While all of this was happening internationally, 2020 was also the year in which the Polisario Front, upset with the lack of movement on a referendum declared it would no longer honour the ceasefire (though mercifully this belligerent action does not seem to have immediately lead to much resumption of hostilities on the ground).
This leads us to the current events of May 2021, where Brahim Ghali, the leader of the Polisario Front flew from Algeria to Spain to receive medical treatment, apparently for Covid19. This enraged Morocco who felt slighted by Spain providing medical assistance without their knowledge to Ghali, who they believe deserves to be tried for crimes, which Spain has somewhat meekly stated it will do. Nevertheless, in retaliation, Morocco let in around 8,000 migrants into Cueta Spain, many of the unaccompanied minors This adds another layer of complexity since Spain controls 2 exclaves in Cueta and Melilla which are technically a part of Spain but on the African continent bordering Morocco. Spain has taken draconian action in league with Morocco to keep potential refugees out, including multiple layers of fencing, and this provides Morocco with significant leverage that it has just employed. Regardless of what happens next, Spain’s actions to provide medical treatment to Ghali have further conflagrated the Western Saharan situation.
The above are all important to take note of, demonstrating the international implications of recent events. But while all of this shows how conflict re-emerging in an oft ignored region could have perilous global ramifications, the way forward is in fact less bedeviling than it may initially seem. Too often lost in this are the needs of those residing in Western Sahara, including the indigenous Sahrawi people. A referendum desperately needs to take place. This referendum clearly needs to include the option of an independent state. It should include an appropriately expansive view of those that can vote for self-determination. International pressure should be less based on geopolitical calculations and self-interest and instead bear down on real pressure for both sides to finally hold the referendum in earnest. Recent protests in New Zealand over the importation of phosphate from Moroccan controlled areas of Western Sahara provide the start of a blueprint. Were countries that are investing in Western Sahara like New Zealand, as well as those that hold sway like Algeria, the EU, US and AU to exert real pressure to get to a referendum, the acceptance of the status quo may end and deadlock subside. Though different in many important respects, South Sudan’s successful referendum does have some instructive lessons on how the international community can be involved in a positive way towards a process that would still be led by Western Sahara and its suzerain. The UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) is established and would play an important role in ironing out a way forward for the referendum and ensuring the process had legitimacy. The Western Sahara conflict is heating up again decades later, it is high time action is taken to finally allow for stability in the wider region and a durable solution for Western Saharans, this is possible, it just requires the will to do it.
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