What Nagorno-Karabakh Means for World Peace

Few know the name Nagorno-Karabakh, nor the recent flare up of hostilities that erupted there earlier this year. To provide a modicum of context, Nagorno-Karabakh is a region in-between Armenia and Azerbaijan which was the site of a brutal conflict in the waning years of the Soviet Union. From 1988 until 1994 Azeris and Armenians fought for control of this territory, which is internationally recognized as the territory of Azerbaijan, but has an ethnic majority of Armenians. After massive loss of life and forced displacement of both ethnic Armenians and Azeris, the current untenable ceasefire was mediated by Russia. Armenia controls most of what is now Nagorno-Karabakh with a self-declared Nagorno-Karabakh Republic being declared but not recognized globally. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan has made plain the fact that they do not want to permanently cede any territory, nor have much interest in greater autonomy for this region. Under this backdrop, headway still seemed to be made. In 2009 meetings between the two nations showed Promise, with Azeri President Ilham Aliyev stating “the negotiations can be said to have been mainly completed”. This turned out to be quixotic. In April of this year open hostilities broke out for days, with allegations of ceasefire violations still continuing to this day. Numbers on the dead are hard to corroborate in the fog of war, but dozens of soldiers and numerous civilians were killed.

This conflict in and of itself has important ramifications. From a geopolitical standpoint Azerbaijan is a close Turkish ally, and Armenia relies on Russia as its patron. Massive oil and natural gas deposits in the Caspian Sea means the region plays a vital role for European energy interests. In addition, the human toll this recent resurgence in the conflict has taken cannot be forgotten. However, for all its significance this conflict has been woefully underreported, meaning lessons that can be gleaned from it are less likely to be learned. Thankfully, as the dozens (note this is up from tens) of avid readers of The Thiébault Blog are well aware, this is a blog that is committed to exposing and learning from important stories which have not received their due.

From a global standpoint, this flare up is instructive for what it says about world peace. Nagorno-Karabakh was known as a frozen conflict, one that was on few people’s radar to escalate. Over a decade of ceasefire had led to complacency in the peace process which was in place, as well as from the international community. With more than enough active conflicts which need some resolution perhaps this is understandable. However, the impetus for peace in those places with ceasefires needs to remain. There is some hope, in Colombia the government and FARC guerillas who have been fighting for 52 years, will sign a peace treaty later this month. Elsewhere in the world, seemingly intractable conflicts mired in endless ceasefires remain. Cyprus, Moldova, Korea, Morocco, India and Pakistan, among others, are embroiled in conflicts which to varying degrees are frozen. Despite the scant attention these conflicts typically receive, paroxysm from a dictator, economic instability, or dictates from more powerful allies can quickly result in re-escalation.

Nagorno-Karabakh serves as a sobering reminder of the importance of durable peace for all conflicts, including those which are not currently active. If we forget the importance of constantly striving for peace regardless of the stage a conflict is in, then we needlessly imperil the prospects for peace around the world.