With tensions between Russia and the
West at stratospheric levels not seen for decades, many questions arise. One of
the most pertinent from the perspective of EU countries is how to replace
Russian energy supplies, primarily natural gas and oil. The main weapon that
Russia wields against the EU is in the form of gas exports. The Baltic
Countries (Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia) and Finland currently rely on Russia
as the sole supplier of their natural gas. While not all EU countries are
forced to receive 100% of their natural gas from Russia, for many nations
Russia dominates as an energy supplier. Countries within the EU as disparate as
Greece, Poland, Austria and Slovenia count on Russia to supply over half of
their natural gas needs. Even economic powerhouse Germany is in the unfortunate
quagmire of needing Russia to supply gas, while simultaneously condemning
Russia’s strong-arm tactics in Ukraine.
So in an environment where Russia is
seen as increasingly hostile, and has been known to turn off the gas before (to
Ukraine in pipelines that continued on to Europe) the search for alternatives
is quickening. The solution will largely be Turkmenistan. It is unlikely you
have ever heard of this country or know its workings in any depth. Its relevancy
for energy is huge however. It has the fourth largest proven natural gas
reserves on Earth (two of the biggest are Russia and Iran both of which are
problematic). It is already China’s largest gas supplier. In addition, Turkmenistan’s
recently opened Galkynysh gas field is
the second largest in the world, eclipsed only by the South Pars Field in the
Persian Gulf. The EU has already made moves to embrace Turkmen gas. Last November
the head of the EU Mission in Ashgabat (Turkmenistan’s capital) confirmed that
among the myriad pipelines the Turkmen’s are building, the Trans-Caspian
pipeline from Turkmenistan to the EU was being finalized. This is an integral
part of the EU’s “Southern Corridor” plan to supplant Russian gas with gas from
Central Asia (primarily Turkmenistan) the Caucuses and the Middle-East. In addition
to an abundance of natural gas, Turkmenistan also has oil, the other resource
which Russia controls over the EU. Oil has developed more slowly than natural
gas largely because of maritime disputes with neighbouring Iran and Azerbaijan.
Still, there is the potential for up to 700 Million barrels of recoverable
reserves, in addition to the 200,000 barrels a day that Turkmenistan currently
produces.
Those expecting little
more than an analysis of a future EU energy supplier as part of a pivot away
from Russia will be disappointed. While the President of the European
Commission happily visited Turkmenistan to discuss energy imports while
ignoring Turkmenistan’s totalitarian regime, this blog believes that moral
obligations are not so easily ignored. Which leads into a brief explanation of
life in Turkmenistan. It is one of the most repressive countries on Earth. Its
former leader “Turkmenbashi” (Father of the Turkmen) maintained an intense cult
of personality often compared to that of Kim Il-Sung. He had complete power and
participated in frequent arbitrary policy changes, for example closing all
hospitals and libraries outside the capital. His sudden death in 2006 led to
absolute control being seized by Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow.
This gentleman’s unpronounceable name did not ameliorate the situation. Travel
is tightly controlled, people are often arbitrarily forbidden from leaving the
country. Independent media is non-existent and Turkmenistan is ranked 177th
in the Press Freedom Index, only North Korea and Eritrea score worse. One
person who had the gall to talk to Radio Free Europe (who are constantly harassed)
woke up the next morning to a bloody sheep’s head. Internet access does not
exist, only access to “Turkmenet” is available. This is a strictly controlled
Government censored version of the internet, which can only be accessed at
Government run computer stations after surrendering a passport. Even the UN is
not allowed in, many UN officials have been waiting for visas that have been
put on hold indefinitely. Relatively benign acts are often punished harshly.
Two popular musicians who appeared on a Turkish talk show were sent to prison
for 5 and 7 years for their music and being on international TV.
Admittedly resource rich economies are
notorious for authoritarian regimes. No one will allege that oil from Saudi
Arabia or Venezuela is coming from an especially free society. That being said,
even in the company of resource rich states Turkmenistan still stands out as
especially deplorable. The EU prides itself on conveying a strong sense of ethical
standards. This is likely why it was banned from negotiating a partnership
agreement with Turkmenistan since 1998, which has recently been reopened
without any need for human rights improvements. This is all abetted by a public
which is largely uninformed concerning Central Asia’s “Stans”. An increasingly
pressing need to diversify energy imports away from Russia cannot result in the
total disregard for the plight of millions of Turkmen. Unfortunately, dealing
with an obscure country which can open up a natural gas bonanza makes ignoring
human suffering so much easier.
