Zhou Enlai, an instrumental force in
Communist China under Mao is reputed to have stated “it is too early to tell”
when asked about the ramifications of the French Revolution (which had happened
over 200 years prior). As a master of foreign policy and diplomacy during a
time when China was routinely embroiled in international disputes, perhaps he
could have offered some sage advice to the United States in the lead up to the
2003 invasion of Iraq, and the ultimate consequences that conflict could end up
having.
To prevent this post from becoming overly
esoteric let me clarify that I am referring to reports today of a deal for Iraq
to buy weapons from Iran. This contravenes the UN Security Council embargo on
arms sales from Iran, which are part of sanctions against Iran due to its
Nuclear Program. According to sources in the Reuters report, Iraq’s President
Nouri al-Maliki made the decision after frustration with the reluctance from
the US to provide munitions to Iraq. The irony in this is that many in the US
were hesitant to provide weapons to the Iraqis because of fear that they were
growing too close to the Iranians. By withholding the arms it appears that only
pushed Iraq closer to a new Iranian ally. This will clearly have an impact on
negotiations between Iran and Western leaders on Iran’s nuclear program. The
West is counting on effective sanctions to force Iran to make broad concessions
in a final deal on its nuclear program, this hampers that desire. More fundamentally,
the entire region, including Israel and the Gulf, both of whom are weary of Iran’s
growing influence, is changing with this deal that consecrates the relationship
between these two countries. While there are many implications for the Middle
East and the globe in the arms agreement, the purpose of this article is to
examine the historical context of this deal, as will be done below.
Relations between Iran and Iraq were frosty
for a long time. When the Shah came to power in Iran through a US sponsored coup,
he was distrustful of both the Socialist government and Arab nationalist Baath
party in Iraq. A major dispute over a waterway led to Iranian warships being
used to intimidate the Iraqis. In addition, Iran under the Shah, along with
close ally Israel, concocted an elaborate scheme to provide weapons to Kurdish
rebel insurgents in Iraq by using Soviet weapons captured by Israel. The
relationship did not ameliorate with the 1979 revolution that overthrew the
Shah that culminated in the Islamic Republic of Iran that is currently in
place. Saddam Hussein who ruled Iraq with an iron fist and as a Sunni was
worried that the majority Shia (Sunni and Shia are both different sects within
Islam) who had been repressed in Iraq would see the Iranian revolution as a
model. This launched the Iran-Iraq war, 8 years of brutality marking the
longest conventional war of the 20th century and longest sustained
campaign of chemical weapons.
The war’s end in 1988 did not result in a
thaw or sudden good will between the two countries however, but the US war in
Iraq would take care of that. With the overthrow of Saddam Hussein the road was
paved for democratic elections and a horrific civil war between Sunni and Shia.
The pendulum shifted in Iraq and Shia leaders came to dominate government with
Sunnis being relegated to second class citizens. This led to a gradual, and
perhaps unsurprising shift towards Iran as a fellow Shia controlled nation. Iraq
is finally finding itself as a nation that is run by Shia and finds one of its
few natural allies in Iran. Iran too, ever since the Islamic Revolution has
faced a dearth of allies and a strongly hostile environment. This helps explains
Iran’s unyielding support for Syria’s tyrannical government as one of its very
few close allies in the region.
This is not the first case where Zhou Enlai’s
words of wisdom have applied before, but this is an important example. It is
almost certain that the “Coalition of the Willing” in Iraq did not envision
that their war to drive out Saddam would result in the creation of a powerful
Iran-Iraq nexus in the Middle East. This is not to say that international
interventions should never be considered, but actions should be considered with
caution as the long-lasting implications can rarely be ascertained with
certainty. In turbulent Iraq today it is still “too early to tell” what the
result of the US invasion will be.
